“Of course, Scooter! Because I’m no smarter than the person who programmed me! I’m only hardware – just like nuts and bolts!” – Scooter Computer and Mr. Chips
As a futurist, I have a very controversial opinion: I hate looking at Technology trends.
Perhaps I should clarify: I like technology well enough[1], but what I hate is this idol worship of technology as though it was a sentient being that was sent to protect and save us all. Unfortunately, I have heard these exact words being used to describe things like AI and each new update to the iPhone.
While technology trends themselves aren’t bad, it’s the idea that they are self-contained trends that are not impacted by social, political, or environmental trends[2] that is very harmful in this community, and this idea is held by those who see foresight as some kind of novelty. But I can point to several simple examples to prove this is false:
- Social: An antivirus company used Twitter to announce that they had found a flaw in hacking group DarkSide’s ransomware, which DarkSide saw and not only fixed the flaw identified, but also thanked the antivirus company for helping them, then went on to attack Colonial Pipeline[3].
- Political: Predictive policing has already been tested out within several smaller sites (such as the Florida justice system), which uses existing information within neighborhoods and artificial intelligence to determine rates of recidivism. There are many problems already with this idea, including unconscious bias of the coder against specific racial and religious minorities. Additionally, there are arguments about how this may turn our legal system into more of a strict binary discussion of innocence and guilt, rather than an interpretation of the law to meet the specific situation[4].
- Environmental: Blockchain generally is not as well understood as it should be. However, the most important thing to know is that “mining” bitcoin uses a LOT of energy, which the University of Cambridge estimates that “Bitcoin alone generates 132.48 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, which easily surpasses the annual energy usage of Norway at 123 TWh in 2020[5].” In the US, 40 billion pounds of carbon dioxide is created by Bitcoin mining in a year[6].
The overall problem, I would say, is that we forget the human element in all of this. The root cause of almost all technological trends, both good and bad, comes down to humanity. We blame everything else that isn’t human for anything that goes wrong, anywhere. We read about this all the time, with people shifting the blame. Ransomware is not due to some technological malfunction or because hackers are using the best software – hackers are one step ahead because they understand they are attacking people. And they’re attacking people where it hurts: the wallet.
Blaming technology for the foibles of man is like blaming a pen for a libel case. We forget that behind every innovation, every accomplishment, and even every catastrophic event that involves technology, there is a human component that needs to be accounted for. Treating technology as a thing that occurs in a vacuum not only dismisses humanity almost entirely, but also sets you up for a lifetime of fixing problems rather than resolving them at the root. Understanding the psychology of why humans do what they do is paramount to understanding the reason for the use of technology. For example, it may be true that hackers generally are after money[7], but many are also hacking for reasons not purely economic: they could be practicing on a smaller system so they can join the “big league” hackers; they might be taking political reasons and treating the digital turf as a new war ground; they could just want to watch the world burn[8].
So for those of you attempting to enter the field of foresight, you can’t swim in the shallow end and expect to get the expertise. You have to jump off the high dive in the deep end. You need to be able to dive deep to see the hidden trends under the surface and make those bold, crazy connections. Thinking that technology is the only factor that matters leaves you more vulnerable; it’s akin to thinking that the only part of the body that matters is the brain – but the brain can’t do much without the other parts of the body.
The computer, the program, the ransomware: they’re all only as good as the person who created it. Stop giving false sentience to the tool and look behind the curtain to find the controller. Understanding the why, along with the how, someone is doing what they do goes a long way toward protecting ourselves against the quick changes in the world. And one final thought: the technology may change at a faster and faster pace, but human emotions and motivations are fairly stagnant in comparison. And which, do you think, would be more prudent to address?
[1] I love playing Pokemon on my Nintendo Switch. The advances we’ve made!
[2] Economic is not listed because, to quote Cabaret, “Money makes the world go round.”
[3] https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/05/24/1025195/colonial-pipeline-ransomware-bitdefender/
[4] https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2016/12/five-ways-technology-will-shape-the-future-of-politics-society-and-human-rights/
[5] https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/cryptocurrency-environmental-impact
[6] https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/cryptocurrency-environmental-impact
[7] As is everyone, let’s be honest.
[8] Like your average villain – cause that had to come from somewhere.
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